Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-08-04 Origin: Site
C．Analysis by product category, dimensional reduction and substitution of product structure, and stock game
1.Electric light source: traditional light source accelerates clearing, special light source highlights toughness
The demand for traditional incandescent and fluorescent lamps continues to shrink, while high value-added scientific research, medical grade special light sources, and green energy-saving oriented ultraviolet/infrared light sources demonstrate strong anti cycle properties in the existing market.
The total value of the electric light source category in 2025 is 1.098 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. Among them, unlisted incandescent bulbs experienced a decline of -31.4%, while research or medical unlisted incandescent bulbs recorded a cliff like decline of -83.3%. As the core main force, the export value of LED light bulbs was 594 million US dollars and the export value of LED tubes was 230 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1% and 20.3% respectively.
On the contrary, high barrier categories have grown against the trend: research and medical halogen lamps have grown by 18.7%, while halogen lamps for trains, aircraft, and ships have grown by 24.2%. Other research and medical discharge lamps have surged by 101.2%.
2.Lighting fixtures: The demand for engineering and commercial lighting has significantly declined, and decorative lighting fixtures are becoming polarized
The sluggish real estate and commercial construction markets have seriously hindered the export of fixed engineering lighting fixtures; However, light strings and consumer grade portable lighting fixtures with rigid holiday consumption have relatively restrained their decline, reflecting the shift of the North American terminal consumer market from "large-scale housing investment" to "small-scale experiential consumption".
The total value of the lighting category will reach 7.059 billion US dollars in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.5%. Engineering and traditional commercial lighting fixtures bear the greatest downward pressure: other branch chandeliers and electrical lighting fixtures on ceilings or walls experience a significant drop of 41.8%, while other electrical desk lamps, bedside lamps, or floor lamps experience a significant drop of 44.0%. Although the total value of non photovoltaic LED lights and lighting devices, which serve as export flags, reached 2.172 billion US dollars, it still fell by 15.0% year-on-year.
At the same time, LED Christmas tree light strings decreased by 39.8% year-on-year, putting enormous pressure on inventory reduction; However, non photovoltaic LED searchlights and spotlights rose slightly by 0.5% against the trend, indicating that specific outdoor and security needs still have rigidity.
3.Other non primary lighting products: Motor vehicle accessories showcase industrial resilience
The total amount of this category in 2025 is $1.585 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, with a moderate decline. Thanks to the profound changes in the global automotive supply chain and the active replacement market for new/used car parts in the United States, the total export value of motor vehicle lighting and electrical signal devices reached $682 million, a slight decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, demonstrating unique resilience in the overall declining market.
D．Macro analysis and future prospects, organic and multidimensional breakthroughs in times of crisis
1.Currency and Interest Rate Cycle: Forward Layout to Prevent Fluctuations
The war has triggered global energy inflation and a surge in commodities, disrupting expectations of interest rate cuts. The call for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes in the second half of the year is growing. High interest rates will continue to suppress the US real estate market, leading to a downward shift in the ceiling of total exports. Meanwhile, the soaring sea freight rates and rising raw material costs will completely offset the exchange rate dividend.
2.The Wave of AI Surges: Transforming towards Computing Power, Internet of Things, and Intelligent Lighting
The global AI wave is accelerating towards edge devices, and "AI+lighting" is a breakthrough point for crossing tariff barriers and increasing customer unit prices. Enterprises can integrate low-power AI edge computing chips, visual or radar sensors into lighting fixtures to achieve crowd tracking and energy consumption adaptive management; Or combined with AI algorithms, dynamically dim for plant lighting and full spectrum healthy lighting.
3.Export compliance upgrade: Building a solid green and cross-border invisible trench
The game between China and the United States is evolving towards implicit technological barriers such as supply chain compliance and carbon footprint tracking. As large corporate buyers begin to demand full lifecycle carbon footprint reports, Chinese companies need to accelerate their green factory transformation.
E．Conclusion
Looking at the export trajectory of Chinese lighting products to the United States from 2022 to 2026, the industry is bidding farewell to the growth model that relies on low prices and large-scale quantity. Despite significant pain, the overall market data has gradually bottomed out after undergoing deep adjustments, and the rapid narrowing of the volatility in April once again confirms the irreplaceable supply chain resilience of China's lighting manufacturing industry.
The future stock game will further test comprehensive strength. Chinese lighting export enterprises can only truly upgrade "Made in China" to an irreplaceable "Made in China" by abandoning their single low price dependence and shifting their focus to AI driven intelligent innovation, the exploration of special high barrier fields such as industry and healthcare, and the deep compliance layout of the global supply chain. Only then can they walk more steadily and further in the international tide.
